(Editor’s Note: Want details from the week’s #TChat Events? See the Storify slideshow and resource links at the end of this post.)

“You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em,
Know when to fold ‘em,
Know when to walk away,
And know when to run…”
–Kenny Rogers, “The Gambler”

I knew something was wrong the moment the two men sat in front us on the bus. I was only a freshman in college, but I knew that feeling in my gut — the pinch of danger.

One asked, “You want to play a game? You’re a winner every time.” The other acted like he didn’t know the guy, but I had seen them laughing together at the bus stop before they got on.

I didn’t respond, but my friend did. “Sure, I’ll play,” he said.

“Eric,” I muttered, “I don’t think that’s a good idea.”

The instigator persisted, “C’mon man, he’ll be a winner for sure. I promise.”

The other man chimed in. “Oh, I’ve played this before. You can win. I’ll help you,” he said.

Eric ignored me and unsuspectingly dove into a round of three-card Monte, a classic street con in which victims think they’re teaming-up with a stranger to cheat the dealer — when the stranger is actually conspiring with the dealer to cheat the victim.

In less than 15 minutes, Eric lost $80. I kept telling him to stop, but between his own belief that he could win, and the dealer’s encouragement, he kept right on losing.

Hiring Decision or Jedi Mind Trick?

Time and time again throughout life, we all learn that our gut isn’t a very accurate decision maker. Yet we tend to think we can beat the odds — even when it comes to hiring the best candidate for a job. Of course, applicants don’t think of their job search as three-card Monte, but many hiring managers and recruiters assume we can pick the best candidate in a heartbeat.

In reality, recruiting and hiring data reveal a different story — the gut actually steers us wrong most of the time. Maybe empathic, balanced decision makers have a better track record (when guided by reliable data), but recruiters really can’t predict the future.

Trusting More Than Your Gut

There are better bets than soothsayers. For example, consider the Challenger sales model, from a powerful new book by CEB. Based on a survey of more than 6,000 individuals, The Challenger Sale explains how sales professionals tend to fit one of five profiles:

• Hard Worker
• Problem Solver
• Challenger
• Relationship Builder
• Lone Wolf

If you’ve been responsible for sales or marketing, you know that most of us focus on building customer relationships. It makes sense to assume that the best salespeople are relationship builders, right?

The CEB study suggests otherwise. In fact, “Challengers” are sales rock stars — they’re the only ones who consistently outperform in complex selling environments. They push customer thinking, they introduce new solutions, and they illuminate problems customers overlook.

Lessons From #TChat: Hiring Guts and Glory

This insight supports what we learned this week at #TChat events with our guests, Chris Mursau VP at Topgrading, and Jean Lynn, VP of HR at Home Instead Senior Care. Recruiting success depends on both:

1) Guts: We all bring intuition to the hiring table. But the real guts of recruiting comes from valid, reliable data and methods that inform our human nature. The more we know about the skills, competencies and characteristics that lead to stellar job performance, the better our decisions will be — for recruiting, hiring and retention.

2) And Glory: Hiring top performers is a process. It demands continuous review and adjustment, based on performance and retention data. It takes rigor to understand who to hire next — whether candidates are external or internal. Ultimately, that’s the critical challenge: the more you know about employees who “go all in” — those who consistently elevate their performance for your organization — the better prepared you’ll be to find a winner in your next hire.

Want to know what the TalentCulture community recommends about how to improve hiring decisions? Check the #TChat Storify highlights and resource links below. Thanks to everyone who contributed ideas — let’s keep the conversation going on Twitter and Google+.

#TChat Week-In-Review: How to Make Better Hiring Decisions

Watch the #TChat sneak peek hangout now

SAT 2/15:
#TChat Preview: TalentCulture Community Manager, Tim McDonald, framed the week’s topic in a post featuring a brief G+ hangout, where he and Chris Mursau discussed why it’s so tough for companies to choose talent. See the #TChat Preview: “Hiring Great Talent: How Do You Decide?”

SUN 2/16:
Forbes.com Post: In her weekly Forbes column, TalentCulture CEO, Meghan M. Biro, discussed why and how recruitment should rely on more than instinct: “Hiring Success: Beyond the Gut Check.”

RELATED POSTS:
“Applicant Assessments: Testing the Waters” — by Dr. Nancy Rubin
“Job Auditions: Secret to Successful Hires?” — by Matt Mullenweg

WED 2/19:

Listen to the #TChat Radio show replay

#TChat Radio: Our hosts Meghan M. Biro and Kevin W. Grossman talked with Chris Mursau, and Jean Lynn, about effective job candidate evaluation methods. Listen to the #TChat Radio replay now…

#TChat Twitter: Immediately following the radio show, Meghan, Kevin, Chris and Jean moved over to the #TChat Twitter stream, where Dr. Nancy Rubin lead our entire TalentCulture community in a dynamic open discussion focused on 5 key questions about candidate evaluation practices in today’s workplace.

See highlights from the Twitter stream the Storify slideshow below:

#TChat Insights: Hiring Great Talent: How Do You Decide?

[javascript src=”//storify.com/TalentCulture/hiring-great-talent-how-do-you-decide.js?template=slideshow”]

Closing Notes & What’s Ahead

GRATITUDE: Thanks again to Chris Mursau VP at Topgrading, and Jean Lynn, VP of HR at Home Instead Senior Care for sharing your perspectives on improving hiring quality. Your expertise and guidance brought depth and dimension to the #TChat discussion!

#TCHAT TOPGRADING DISCOUNT: Interested in trying Topgrading? #TChat participants receive a discount of 10%, on a 2-day Topgrading Workshop. Just use Code TC213 on checkout by 2/28/2014.

NOTE TO BLOGGERS: Did this week’s events prompt you to write about candidate selection methods? We welcome your thoughts. Post a link on Twitter (include #TChat or @TalentCulture), or insert a comment below, and we’ll pass it along.

WHAT’S AHEAD: Next week at #TChat Events, we’ll take a very special look at 2014 “The Year of the Employee” with Josh Bersin, Founder and Principal of Bersin by Deloitte. See more information at #TChat Radio, and save the date: Wednesday, February 26!

Meanwhile, the TalentCulture conversation continues daily on #TChat Twitter, in our LinkedIn group, and on our NEW Google+ community. So join us anytime on your favorite social channels.

We’ll see you on the stream!

(Editor’s Note: CONGRATS to Paul Thoresen — winner of the recent Pebble smartwatch giveaway from Dice! And thanks to all the #TChat contributors who shared tech recruiting ideas and questions with Dice and #FutureofTech.)

Image Credit: Stock.xchng